By Marian Salzman (Adweek U.S. edition)

Together, the following 10 trends will make 2006 subtly different from 2005, significantly different from 2000 and radically different from 1995

1. Sex as hot button. Sexual images and discussion abound in the U.S. media, as prime time shows run sexually explicit storylines, porn actors become celebrities and celebrities’ sexual antics amuse rather than disgrace. For much of the American population, this is an era of sex without apologies. However, there is a counter trend. In the United States, the legislative tide has turned against the social liberalism that legalized abortion on demand and Christians are organizing to vote their values—which do not generally condone premarital sex. In the Muslim world, young women embrace headscarves and all-covering clothing, grafting a modern branch onto religious roots. In 2006, expect to see bigger fault lines opening between sexual conservatives and sexual liberals, as acceptance of freer and easier sexual behavior opposes conservative demand for modesty.

2. Appreciating authenticity. Experiencing the world through the TV, particularly through reality TV, blurs the line between "really real" and "TV real." So when "real reality" breaks through the manufactured version, it does have an impact. Consider the very real and emotional rescue of pets after Hurricane Katrina versus the questionable reality of Paris Hilton and Nicole Richie on The Simple Life. Similarly, comments from President Bush and Prince Charles during news conferences shock more than what the actors say on The Surreal Life. Now that "Survivors," "Apprentices," "Idols"—virtually anyone with media exposure—counts as a celebrity—at least for the 15 minutes Andy Warhol promised, if not a whole lot longer, authenticity has increased value. Celebrity has become such a cheap, contrived flash in the pan, that come 2006, it's opposite—genuine, lasting quality and authenticity can be seen and appreciated.

3. The timelessness of India and China. Many people in developed countries describe themselves as spiritual, and feel a resonance with the traditions of India and China, such as yoga and meditation. These ancient practices, and the teachings that underlie them, contain means of "stepping out of time" and deep notions of balance. The ability to switch between the adrenaline of 24/7 activity and the serenity of timelessness will become highly prized as life accelerates. In 2006, the most switched-on Indians and Chinese will tap into their roots to get their edge, and Western businessmen will look to them and their methods for perspective unavailable through MBA programs or Forbes magazine.

4. Downtime and downspace are disappearing. With mobile phones and WiFi, nobody need be unreachable. We can call and be called anywhere. We welcome these capabilities, and curse them. As we fill our time with activities, we are squeezing out the buffers of downtime that on one level seem to serve no purpose, but which do in fact let us regroup. A commute, for example, is a transition between the workspace and one’s personal space; telecommuters—or workers busily tapping on Blackberries—lose that transition. We’re beginning to appreciate that unstructured time—whether it’s spent smelling the roses or simply daydreaming—is indeed valuable. In 2006, smart brands will be figuring out how to participate in consumers’ downspace and downtime. It’s a tough trick. Few will manage to do it well.

5. Natural disasters spark eco-awareness. This is no longer just the domain of Hollywood and tree-huggers. The tsunami of Boxing Day 2004 and Hurricane Katrina provided dramatic imagery that pushed the environment up the public agenda and got many people wondering: what’s next? Are we safe? As news coverage of the disasters faded, public attention moved on—outside of the affected areas, anyway, and for now. But the seeds of awareness were planted along with the powerful images of suffering born of large-scale natural disasters. No one can say whether 2006 will bring another environmental tragedy, but this much is certain: people around the world are going to be more interested in their environment than they were a year ago.

6. Living with Islam. A decade or so ago, Islam was mostly an issue of academic interest. Now, religious conservatism is rising and changing that. In the United States, Christianity as an organizing force resonates all the way up to the White House and arguably down from it—shaping agendas that are not merely anti-liberal but pro-Christian. Meanwhile, Muslims are contemplating their place in the world—and finding it’s not an easy fit. The calls of imams favoring conservative Islam are heard throughout Europe, where some 12 million Muslims currently make their home. Questions of how to integrate into non-Muslim countries, or whether to do so at all, are causing turmoil for millions who feel caught between conflicting values of the traditional world and the modern. Al-Qaeda’s efforts to push Muslims and non-Muslims apart aren’t helping the dilemma. In 2006 and beyond, coming to terms with the problems of cohabitation and finding solutions palatable to Muslims and non-Muslims will be an urgent challenge.

7. Personal control freaks. Consumers have gotten used to personal control, which is essentially about getting more of what they want and less of what they don’t. It means being less dependent and more independent. Highly competitive markets give consumers huge leverage to exercise personal control, for example in choice of radio programming, cellular phone and Internet service, and dietary decisions. The promise of something better is often just a click away. Yet, as personal control grows, so do demands, expectations, and complaints. The most control-conscious consumers are easily dissatisfied and ready to move on to the next thing. In 2006 their brand switching, and behavior switching, driven by dissatisfaction, will become even more the norm. Expect more of the roller coaster that hurt marketers of donuts, macaroni and orange juice while Dr. Atkin’s low-carb diet was in favor, then brought an upswing in demand for artisan-baked breads.

8. Brand sluts. These consumers go with whoever makes the best offer. Marketers like to think that consumers feel a special bond of loyalty with their brands. But as choice and competition increase, “brand sluts” are open to any brand that makes an attractive offer. There are five big trends fostering promiscuity: Commoditization, Outsourcing, Brand Inflation, Rapid Innovation and Information Access. In 2006, brands must decide whether they can really expect loyalty and whether they themselves are loyal to their consumers. If the answer is no, then marketers should stop kidding themselves and accept that their products are “slut brands” and they’re in the business of pulling in brand sluts.

9. Questioning the costs of mobility. Until very recently, no one doubted that the benefits of mobility far outweighed the costs; now the cost-benefit equation is shifting. Fuel costs more and traffic congestion is getting worse, wasting hours every day. Transport authorities are preparing road-pricing tolls to charge those who are downtown during business days. At airports, enhanced security checks, missed take-off slots, long taxiing times and congested air lanes all add time and expense to air travel. Plus, all mobility incurs environmental costs. It begs the question: Just how modern is the prevailing notion of mobility? This year, consumers, companies and authorities are certain to ask more serious questions about the costs and benefits of personal mobility in its current form.

10. Pondering the next pandemic. Globalization and global mobility have provided outstanding opportunities for pathogenic bugs of all sorts. Medical authorities around the world are now doing what they can to prepare for the next major pandemic that many fear is not a matter of if, but of when. "The Next Pandemic" is already an idea that is spreading fast and far. That is significant. The tsunami and Katrina have shown just how quickly and massively normal life can be turned upside down. Meanwhile, another pandemic continues to blight lives: "Globesity" and the complications related to the super-sizing of the population. One way or another, 2006 will be the year of "The Next Pandemic."

What It All Means. A major preoccupation of many people in 2006 can be summed up under the notion of "defining boundaries." Most people prefer to know, and ideally have some authority figure tell them, just what’s what: who is "us" and who is "them"; what’s in and what’s out. Yet the huge changes in technology and in society over recent years have blurred many of the old, familiar, reassuring boundaries—raising questions not only of who is "us" and "them," but of also "Who am I?" Where does work stop and life begin? What is the difference between home and office, and between business and personal? When does uptime stop and downtime start? What is work and what is play? Who counts as family?

The disintegration of boundaries unleashes a lot of energy but also creates a lot of discomfort. In less volatile times the boundaries were very clear and people knew where they stood. Now many people don’t feel so clear about where they stand—which also makes it harder to figure where they’re going, how they should go, what they’ll need for the journey and what they’ll need once they get there. Some people also fear they won’t get where everyone else is going; they’ll be left behind or already have been. Many of the issues facing us going into 2006 have no clear right or wrong answers because they’re complex, and that uncertainty is vexing to people accustomed to having it.

Boundaries may be defined by law: what’s legal and what’s illegal? They may be defined in the moral codes of a society: What’s normal behavior and what’s not? And they may be defined on a personal level: What’s acceptable and what’s unacceptable? Who is for me and who is against me? What’s good for me and what’s bad for me? What do I need?

Some who feel a strong need for boundaries will look to the past for guidance and likely come up with conservative guidelines from previous eras, as may well be the case with the U.S. Supreme Court. Others with a higher tolerance for ambivalent, confusing situations are likely to develop their own individual, flexible boundaries. More than likely, 2006 will be a blended year. Individuals and societies will try to organize their chaos and confusion with boundaries, only to find that too much is changing too fast for boundaries to hold for long.